Fecha/hora: 31/05/2024 14:39:27

Biblioteca(s): | INIA Las Brujas.
Fecha corriente: | 23/11/2016
Fecha de la última actualización: | 10/02/2020
Autoria: | FERNANDES, K.; BAETHGEN, W.; BERNARDES, S.; DEFRIES, R.; DEWITT, D.; GODDARD, L.; LAVADO, W.; LEE, D. E.; PADOCH, CH.; PINEDO-VASQUEZ, M.; URIARTE, M.
Afiliación: | KATIA FERNANDES, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, USA; WALTER BAETHGEN, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, USA; SERGIO BERNARDES, Department of Geography, University of Georgia, USA; RUTH DEFRIES, Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, USA; DAVID DEWITT, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, USA; LISA GODDARD, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, USA; WALDO LAVADO, Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia e Hidrologia, Perú; DONG EUN LEE, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, USA; CHRISTINE PADOCH, Institute of Economic Botany, New York Botanical Garden, USA; MIGUEL PINEDO-VASQUEZ, Center for Environmental Research and Conservation, Columbia University, USA; MARÍA URIARTE, Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, USA.
Título: | North tropical atlantic influence on western Amazon fire season variability.
Año de publicación: | 2011
Fuente/Imprenta: | Geophysical Research Letters, 2011, v. 38, no. 12, L12701.
DOI: | 10.1029/2011GL047392
Idioma: | Inglés

Notas:

Publication History: Issue online 17 June 2011 // Version of record online 17 June 2011 // Manuscript Accepted 2 May 2011 // Manuscript Revised 26 April 2011 //
Manuscript Received 7 March 2011

Contenido:

ABSTRACT.

The prevailing wet climate in the western Amazon is not favorable to the natural occurrence of fires. Nevertheless, the current process of clearing of humid forests for agriculture and cattle ranching has increased the vulnerability of the region to the spread of fires. Using meteorological stations precipitation and the Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Active-Fires (AF) during 2000?2009, we show that fire anomalies vary closely with July-August-September (JAS) precipitation variability as measured by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The precipitation variability is, in turn, greatly determined by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA). We develop a linear regression model to relate local fire activity to an index of the NTA-SST. By using seasonal forecasts of SST from a coupled model, we are able to predict anomalous JAS fire activity as early as April. We applied the method to predict the severe 2010 JAS season, which indicated strongly positive seasonal fire anomalies within the 95% prediction confidence intervals in most western Amazon. The spatial distribution of predicted SPI was also in accordance with observed precipitation anomalies. This three months lead time precipitation and fire prediction product in the western Amazon could help local decision makers to establish an early warning systems or other appropriate course of action before the fire season begins.

@ 2011 by the American Geophysical Union

Palabras-Clave: | DROUGHT; GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS; NATURAL HAZARDS.
Categoría del tema: | --
Registro original: | INIA Las Brujas (LB)
Ejemplares: | LB - (101243-1) - ADD - AP - DD -  -  -  - DIS